2024 Presidential Election Battleground States: Data Analysis
What are battleground states and how do we determine them for a given election cycle?
Historically, presidential candidates have focused their campaign efforts on swing states. Swing states are also commonly referred to as battleground states because they are the most politically divided between the two main political parties. Identifying these states allows these campaigns to know where to place the most advertising and staffing resources. The purpose of this document is to analyze a set of data from the last three presidential election cycles to attempt to predict the battleground states in the upcoming 2024 presidential election. Some states can be seen as more on the teetering edge than others based on independent variables determined in this document.
Objective
Determine the independent variables that influence political leaning
Calculate the battleground states in the 2024 presidential election and their sensitivity to the identified independent variables
Establish risk and potential errors with the data
Determine next steps and an action plan for the 2024 election